Galileo intends to determine whether gravitational acceleration is affected by mass by dropping two cannonballs with differing masses off the Leaning Tower of Pisa. Conditional on there being no effect, he is 95% confident that the cannonballs will land within 0.1 seconds of each other. (The experiment isn't perfect—one ball might hit a bird.) Conditional on mass affecting acceleration, he is 80% confident that the balls won't land within 0.1 seconds of each other. (There's some chance that although mass affects acceleration, it doesn't have much of an effect.)
(a) Before performing the experiment, Galileo is 30% confident that mass does not affect acceleration. How confident is he that the cannonballs will land within 0.1 seconds of each other?
(b) After Galileo conditionalizes on the evidence that the cannonballs landed within 0.1 seconds of each other