Consider an experiment in which a fair coin is tossed until a head is obtained for the first time. If this experiment is performed three times, what is the probability that ex- actly the same number of tosses will be required for each of the three performances?

Respuesta :

Answer:

[tex] P(A_1 = A_2 =A_3) = \frac{1}{1-\frac{1}{8}} -1 =\frac{1}{7}[/tex]

Step-by-step explanation:

For this case we assume that the probability of obtain a head is 1/2

[tex]P(H) =\frac{1}{2}[/tex]

We are conducting the experiment 3 times. And we want the probability that exactly the same number of tosses will be required for each of the 3 performances.

We can model the situation like this. Let [tex]A_i[/tex] the number of tosses used in the performance, for this case [tex] A_i \geq 1[/tex]

And the distribution for [tex]A_i[/tex] would be a negative binomial with the following mass function:

[tex] P(A_i = r)= (1-\frac{1}{2})^{r-1} \frac{1}{2}= (\frac{1}{2})^r [/tex]

Now we need to assume that the 3 performaces are independent from each other and we want this:

[tex] P(A_1 = A_2 =A_3) =\sum_{r=1} P(A_i = r)^3[/tex]

And we can since we have the mass function we can replace:

[tex]P(A_1 = A_2 =A_3) =\sum_{r=1} (\frac{1}{2})^{3r}[/tex]

[tex]P(A_1 = A_2 =A_3) = \sum_{r=1} (\frac{1}{8})^r [/tex]

And as we can see we have a geamotric series and we can find the probability like this:

[tex] P(A_1 = A_2 =A_3) = \frac{1}{1-\frac{1}{8}} -1 =\frac{1}{7}[/tex]