Lonnie needs to make a long business trip back to of Minnesota but is uncertain of when to leave. According to the weather report, there is a big storm starting that he may encounter. The cost of deciding to leave later will make him late for his meeting but the cost to leave too early might put him in a car accident on the slippery roads. Which theory would predict that because of evolution, Lonnie would choose the less costly or dangerous option and leave later in the day to avoid the storm?

When human beings are making judgments under uncertainty, there are generally two distinct types of errors that are possible; the first is false positives and the second is false negative. It is impossible for a decision maker to minimize these two errors at the same time because once one is minimized, the other is increased. In Lonnie's case, setting out early will make him meet his meeting early, but endanger his life, while setting out after the storm would allow him avoid the storm but get late to his meeting.