The exponential distribution applies to lifetimes of a certain component. Its failure rate is unknown. Find the probability that the component will survive past 5 years assuming:

(a) lambda=.5
Pr=_________
(b) lambda=0.9
Pr=_________
(c) lambda=1.1
Pr=_________

Respuesta :

Answer:

a) 0.0821

b) 0.0111

c) 0.0041

Step-by-step explanation:

Exponential distribution:

The exponential probability distribution, with mean m, is described by the following equation:

[tex]f(x) = \lambda e^{-\lambda x}[/tex]

In which [tex]\lambda[/tex] is the decay parameter.

The probability that x is lower or equal to a is given by:

[tex]P(X \leq x) = \int\limits^a_0 {f(x)} \, dx[/tex]

Which has the following solution:

[tex]P(X \leq x) = 1 - e^{-\lambda x}[/tex]

Either it lasts more 5 years or less, or it survives more than 5 years. The sum of the probabilities of these events is decimal 1. So

[tex]P(X \leq 5) + P(X > 5) = 1[/tex]

In all 3 cases, we want P(X > 5). So

[tex]P(X > 5) = 1 - P(X \leq 5)[/tex]

In which

[tex]P(X \leq 5) = 1 - e^{-5\lambda}[/tex]

(a) lambda=.5

[tex]P(X \leq 5) = 1 - e^{-5*0.5} = 0.9179[/tex]

[tex]P(X > 5) = 1 - P(X \leq 5) = 1 - 0.9179 = 0.0821[/tex]

(b) lambda=0.9

[tex]P(X \leq 5) = 1 - e^{-5*0.9} = 0.9889[/tex]

[tex]P(X > 5) = 1 - P(X \leq 5) = 1 - 0.9889 = 0.0111[/tex]

(c) lambda=1.1

[tex]P(X \leq 5) = 1 - e^{-5*1.1} = 0.9959[/tex]

[tex]P(X > 5) = 1 - P(X \leq 5) = 1 - 0.9959 = 0.0041[/tex]