A pharmaceutical company knows that approximately 5% of its birth-control pills have an ingredient that is below the minimum strength, thus rendering the pill ineffective. What is the probability that fewer than 10 in a sample of 200 pills will be ineffective

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Answer:

The probability that fewer than 10 in a sample of 200 pills will be ineffective is 0.4364

∴ P(X<10)=0.4364

Step-by-step explanation:

Given that the total number of sample pills is 200

ie., n=200

To find  the probability that fewer than 10 in a sample of 200 pills will be ineffective:

Let us assume it success if a pill is ineffective.

The probability of success in each trial is [tex]p=5\%[/tex]

[tex]p=5\%[/tex]

[tex]p=\frac{5}{100}[/tex]

[tex]=0.05[/tex]

∴ p=0.05

We know that the total probability is p+q=1

The probability of failure is q

q=1-p

q=1-0.05

∴ q=0.95

Let X be the random variable of the number of ineffective pills in a sample of 200 pills.

Hence X has Binomial distribution with parameter n=200 and p=0.05

The formula for Mean in Binomial distribution is

[tex]\mu=np[/tex]

Substitute the values in the above formula we get

[tex]\mu=200(0.05)[/tex]

∴ [tex]\mu=10[/tex]

The formula for Standard deviation in Binomial distribution is

[tex]\sigma=\sqrt{npq}[/tex]

Substitute the values in the above formula we get

[tex]\sigma=\sqrt{(200)(0.05)(0.95)}[/tex]

[tex]=\sqrt{9.5}[/tex]

[tex]=3.082[/tex]

∴ [tex]\sigma=3.082[/tex]

Now we have to find the probability that fewer than 10 in a sample of 200 pills will be ineffective.

That is to find the area to the left of x=9.5

The formula is [tex]z=\frac{x-\mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

Substitute the values in the formula we get

[tex]z=\frac{9.5-10}{3.082}[/tex]

[tex]=\frac{-0.5}{3.082}[/tex]

[tex]=-0.16[/tex]

∴ [tex]z=-0.16[/tex]

Now P(X<10)=P(Z<-0.16)

=0.4364

∴ P(X<10)=0.4364

Therefore the probability that fewer than 10 in a sample of 200 pills will be ineffective is 0.4364