Answer:
0.3950
Step-by-step explanation:
Any team team will win the championship with probability 63% that is
P(W)=0.63
when teams win the championship, they win the first game of the series 72% of the time that is
P(F|W)=0.72
When they lose the championship, they win the first game 27% of the time.
P(F|W')=0.27
The probability that they will win the World Series when the first game is over and your team has lost that is
P(W|F')
Now, By Bayes theorem
[tex]\begin{array}{l}
P\left(W | F^{\prime}\right)=\frac{P\left(F^{\prime} | W\right) P(W)}{P\left(F^{\prime} | W\right) P(W)+P\left(F^{\prime} | W^{\prime}\right) P\left(W^{\prime}\right)} \\
\quad=\frac{[1-P(F | W)] P(W)}{[1-P(F | W)] P(W)+\left[1-P\left(F | W^{\prime}\right)\right][1-P(W)]} \\
\quad=\frac{[1-0.72] \times 0.63}{[1-0.72] \times 0.63+[1-0.27][1-0.63]} \\
\quad=\frac{0.28\times 0.63}{0.28\times 0.63+0.73 \times 0.37} \\
=0.3950\end{array}[/tex]
