A worker has asked her supervisor for a letter of recommendation for a new job. She estimates that there is an 80 percent chance that she will get the job if she receives a strong recommendation, a 40 percent chance if she receives a moderately good recommendation, and a 10 percent chance if she receives a weak recommendation. She further estimates that the probabilities that the recommendation will be strong, moderate, and weak are 0.7, 0.2, and 0.1, respectively. a. How certain is sh

Question

contestada

Respuesta :

oeerivona oeerivona · Answer 1 · 2021-07-10T22:21:48+02:00

Answer:

65 percent certain to get the job

Step-by-step explanation:

The given parameters are;

The chance that she gets the job if she receives a strong recommendation, P(J|S) = 80 percent = 0.8

The chance that she gets the job if she receives a moderately good recommendation, P(J|M) = 40 percent = 0.4

The chance that she gets the job if she receives a weak recommendation = 10 percent, P(J|W) = 0.1

The probability that the recommendation will be strong, P(S) = 0.7

The probability that the recommendation will be moderate, P(M) = 0.2

The probability that the recommendation will be weak, P(W) = 0.1

Therefore, the probability that she gets the job given any condition, is given as follows;

P(J) = P(J|S)×P(S) + P(J|M)×P(M) + P(J|W)×P(W)

∴ P(J) = 0.8 × 0.7 + 0.4×0.2 + 0.1×0.1 = 0.65

Therefore, she is 65 percent certain to get the job