The percentage of motorists falling in each category, in the long term, are as follows:
High-risk category = 70%
Low-risk category = 30%
Data and Calculations:
Risk Profile Categories of Motorists
High Risk Low Risk
Probability of remaining
in the same category 50% 10%
Probability of moving to another
category 50% 90%
Probability a motorist falling in the high-risk category = (50% x 50%) + (50% x 90%)
= 25% + 45%
= 70%
Probability a motorist falling in the low-risk category = (50% x 50%) + (50% x 10%)
= 25% + 5%
= 30%
Thus, the probability of a motorist falling in the high-risk category is 70%, while the probability of a motorist falling in the low-risk category is 30%.
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