Hindsight bias leads people to perceive research findings as unsurprising.
The phrase "hindsight bias" is used in psychology to describe the propensity of people to overestimate their capacity to foresee an occurrence that was improbable to be predicted.
Hindsight bias is the propensity to overestimate one's capacity to have predicted an outcome after learning about it, whether it be the result of an experiment, a sporting event, a military action, or a political election. The "I knew it all along phenomena" is how people commonly refer to it.
An illustration of the bias caused by hindsight. The three layers of hindsight bias—memory distortion (“I said it would happen”), inevitability (“It had to happen”), and foreseeability (“I knew it would happen”)—are highlighted in this model, which stresses the special linkages between inputs and outcomes.
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