1. A woman visits four different places: A, B, C, and D. If, at a given time, she is at point A, then the next hour she will be at point D with 100 percent probability. If she is at point B, then she will be at point A in an hour (with 100 percent probability) If she is at point C, then she will be at point A or B, with equal probabilities (that is, 50 percent each). If she is at point D, then she will be at point B or C with equal probability. a) Write down the stochastic matrix M that describes, given a probability vector, the probability that the woman will be at each of the places during the next hour. (b) Find the steady state vector. (This is a probability vector [positive entries that add up to 11 satisfying Mu- [Hint: you should simply assume that λ-1 is an eigenvalue for M (this is guaranteed for all stochastic matrices) and find the corresponding eigenspace. Divide by a suitable constant to get the steady state vector (c) After many hours pass, what are the probabilities that the woman will be at A? B? C? D? (These are recorded in the steady state vector.)

Respuesta :

The resulting probability is 100%

How to calculate probability?

The general formula to calculate the probability is

=> P(B) = (n(B)/N(S)

where,

P(B) is the probability of an event 'B'.

n(B) is the number of favorable outcomes of an event 'B'.

n(S) is the total number of events occurring in a sample space.

Given,

A woman visits four different places: A, B, C, and D. If, at a given time, she is at point A, then the next hour she will be at point D with 100 percent probability. If she is at point B, then she will be at point A in an hour (with 100 percent probability) If she is at point C, then she will be at point A or B, with equal probabilities (that is, 50 percent each). If she is at point D, then she will be at point B or C with equal probability.

Here we have given that,

Number of places = 4 (A, B, C, D)

Initial point = A

Point D probability = 100%

For Point B to A probability = 100%

For point C to A or B probability = 50%

For point D to B and C probability = 50%

Now, here we need to find the probabilities that the woman will be at.

Like the women will spend three hours of travelling in the point A, B and C, then the probability of the points are calculated as,

=> 1 + 0.5 + 0.5 - 1

=> 2 - 1 = 1

Therefore, the resulting probability is 100%.

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