Respuesta :
As per the forecast, the updated forecast for the amazon sales accounting for trend, seasonality and adjusted for the serial correlation using the AR(1) model is 75.243.
In statistics, the term correlation defines the degree to which two variables move in coordination with one another.
Here we have Quarterly Amazon Sales (billion dollars) starting in Quarter 3 of 2013 through Quarter 2 of 2021 . And assume in Quarter 2 of 2021 the Amazon Sales were 96.6 billion dollars.
Now we have to use the output provided below to report the updated forecast for the Amazon Sales for Quarter 3 of 2021.
Here the variable time period is coded in the following way:
Start with
t=1 for Quarter 3 of 2013,
t=2 for Quarter 4 of 2013 .
Then the value of t will increase by 1 for each subsequent quarter.
Here in this example we have created indicator variables for Quarters 1, 2 and 3. Quarter 4 is the base level.
Now, by using the output here for the model accounting for trend and seasonality as well as the output for the AR(1) model report the updated forecast for Amazon Sales in Quarter 3 of 2021.
Here the subset of the output posted below: Response Revenues Bivariate Fit of Residual Revenues $2 By Lag residuals Parameter Estimates
Therefore, the Updated forecast for the Amazon Sales accounting for Trend, Seasonality and Adjusted for the Serial Correlation using the AR(1) model is 75.243
To know more about Correlation here.
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