From Text book: Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision Analysis (Ragsdale):
Chapter 12, Q3
What is the process and steps to get the amount of money in the account at 5% chance of having insufficient funds?
Refer to the Hungry Dawg Restaurant example presented in this chapter. Health claim costs actually tend to be seasonal, with higher levels of claims occurring during the summer months (when kids are out of school and more likely to injure themselves) and during December (when people schedule elective procedures before the next year's deductible must be paid). The following table summarizes the seasonal adjustment factors that apply to RNGs for average claims in the Hungry Dawg problem. For instance, the average claim for month 6 should be multiplied by 115%, and claims for month 1 should be multiplied by 80%. Suppose the company maintains an account from which it pays health insurance claims. Assume there is $2.5 million in the account at the beginning of month 1. Each month, employee contributions are deposited into this account and claims are paid from the account. If they want their only to be a 5% chance of having insufficient funds then the amount will be The screenshot is given below: