In both instances, there is a 20% chance that he gets a striped sweater. 2 x 2/10 is not the same as 2/10 x 2/10. You have to do 2/10 x 2/10, because there's a 20% chance he gets it first, and then 20% he gets it again. The chance he gets it twice in a row should be 4 out of 100 or 1 out of 25. A very slim chance
