Respuesta :
Answer:
The probability that the diagnosis is correct is 0.95249.
Step-by-step explanation:
We are given that the American Diabetes Association estimates that 8.3% of people in the United States have diabetes.
Suppose that a medical lab has developed a simple diagnostic test for diabetes that is 98% accurate for people who have the disease and 95% accurate for people who do not have it.
Let the probability that people in the United States have diabetes = P(D) = 0.083.
So, the probability that people in the United States do not have diabetes = P(D') = 1 - P(D) = 1 - 0.083 = 0.917
Also, let A = event that the diagnostic test is accurate
So, the probability that a simple diagnostic test for diabetes is accurate for people who have the disease = P(A/D) = 0.98
And the probability that a simple diagnostic test for diabetes is accurate for people who do not have the disease = P(A/D') = 0.95
Now, the probability that the diagnosis is correct is given by;
Probability = P(D) [tex]\times[/tex] P(A/D) + P(D') [tex]\times[/tex] P(A/D')
= (0.083 [tex]\times[/tex] 0.98) + (0.917 [tex]\times[/tex]0.95)
= 0.08134 + 0.87115
= 0.95249
Hence, the probability that the diagnosis is correct is 0.95249.
